With much attention focused on the potential economic impact of Covid-19, PlaceMakers shares some insights based on its own experience – which is very relevant to landscapers
The effects of Covid-19 on the world economy are well-documented – the EU is predicting a deeper recession in 2020 than initially expected and Australia has just entered its first recession in almost three decades.
Forecasters have been predicting a New Zealand recession since we first entered lockdown in March and, while construction was highlighted as a major concern at the start of the Covid-19 cycle, we have yet to see the expected downturn happen. But what happens if the construction industry does enter a recession? Should landscapers be worried? Not necessarily.
PlaceMakers Category Manager Martin Brannigan has been studying data from Stats NZ, which shows building and construction consenting data for new build consents compared to consents for additions and alterations.
“Historic data has shown that whenever there is a contraction in new builds, additions and alterations (A&A), which has a high correlation to landscape spending, does not follow the same pattern – or at least not to the same extent” says Brannigan.,The blue line on the graph below shows new builds between 1984 and 2017, while the grey line
represents A&A.
In 1992, 2002, and especially during the GFC in 2009, the new build market dropped by 20-30%, while the A&A market dropped by just 10%.
In 1987, 1996 and 2006, when the new build market dropped, the A&A market actually increased. So, don’t get too disheartened – if history has told us anything, it’s that it is likely to be repeated!